The Trump administration’s proposal to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, has triggered widespread concern among scientists, universities, and policy experts who argue the move could undermine decades of progress in weather forecasting and climate science. NCAR has long served as a cornerstone of atmospheric research in the United States, supporting advanced modeling systems used globally to predict storms, hurricanes, and long-term climate trends.
The plan, announced by the White House Office of Management and Budget, would break up the center and relocate selected activities to other entities. Critics argue that fragmenting NCAR’s operations risks disrupting the integrated approach required to study complex interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, and land systems.
A Research Institution Central to Weather and Climate Prediction
NCAR was established more than sixty years ago to provide universities and researchers with shared resources that no single institution could support independently. Through its partnership with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, NCAR connects more than 120 U.S. universities in collaborative scientific efforts that address extreme weather, water availability, and climate variability.
Among its most influential contributions are advanced numerical models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting system, which underpins forecasting tools used by agencies and universities worldwide. These systems complement operational forecasting conducted by organizations such as the https://www.weather.gov, helping improve the accuracy of predictions for hurricanes, winter storms, and severe weather outbreaks.
NCAR has also been instrumental in developing observation technologies that enhance aviation safety and disaster preparedness, aligning closely with broader national efforts led by institutions like the https://www.noaa.gov to protect lives and infrastructure.
Concerns Over Fragmentation and Forecast Reliability
Scientists argue that separating weather research from climate science ignores how closely the two fields are linked. Long-term climate patterns influence short-term weather extremes, while weather observations feed back into climate modeling systems. Researchers warn that dismantling NCAR could weaken this feedback loop, slowing innovation and reducing forecast reliability during extreme events.
Advanced climate simulations produced at NCAR are also essential for understanding risks associated with heat waves, droughts, and cold-air outbreaks that strain energy systems and public services. These models support resilience planning initiatives promoted by research institutions such as https://www.nsf.gov, which funds large-scale scientific infrastructure across the country.
The potential loss of centralized computing power and shared research aircraft could further limit the ability of universities to conduct large-scale atmospheric experiments, particularly those requiring coordinated national resources.
Political Fallout and Implications for Public Safety
The proposal has drawn sharp political backlash from Colorado officials, who argue the move places public safety at risk. Weather forecasting improvements over recent decades have contributed to reduced fatalities from storms and aviation-related weather hazards. Researchers fear that disrupting NCAR’s work could reverse some of these gains, particularly as extreme weather events grow more frequent and costly.
Beyond forecasting, NCAR plays a role in training the next generation of atmospheric scientists, many of whom go on to work in government agencies, academia, and the private sector. The potential dismantling of the center raises broader questions about the future of federally supported climate research and the United States’ leadership in atmospheric science, an area where it has historically set global standards alongside organizations such as https://www.ucar.edu.
