A recent survey of over 500 political scientists suggests growing concern that democracy in the United States may be facing a decline. The study, conducted by Bright Line Watch, asked experts to rate the current state of American democracy on a scale from 0 (complete dictatorship) to 100 (perfect democracy). Following the November election, the average score was 67, but it dropped to 55 in the early weeks of President Donald Trump’s second term.
John Carey, co-director of Bright Line Watch and a professor at Dartmouth, noted that this is the steepest decline since the organization began its surveys in 2017. The study evaluates 30 indicators of democratic performance, including judicial and legislative independence, press freedom, and executive power constraints.
Some scholars point to signs of “competitive authoritarianism,” where elections still take place but conditions are not entirely free or fair. Researchers draw parallels with countries like Hungary or Turkey, where such systems have developed under similar circumstances.
However, not all political scientists agree with this assessment. James Campbell, a retired professor from the University at Buffalo, argues that the administration is using legitimate executive authority to address structural challenges, including job loss and globalization. He also suggests that some critiques may stem from ideological disagreements.
Other observers have expressed concern about specific actions by the administration, such as media investigations by the FCC and financial pressure on universities. These actions, some experts argue, may discourage public dissent or academic research.
Despite these warnings, some political scientists believe the U.S. system remains resilient. They emphasize that key institutions, including the judiciary, are still acting as checks on executive power. Unlike other nations where populist leaders have implemented major constitutional changes, they note that such structural shifts have not occurred in the U.S.
Bright Line Watch plans to conduct another survey soon to update its findings on the perceived state of American democracy.
