People who frequently consume ultra-processed foods (UPFs) may face a higher risk of premature death, according to a recent multi-country analysis that included the United Kingdom, the United States, and six other nations. This large-scale research has intensified global concern over the widespread and growing presence of UPFs in modern diets.
Ultra-processed foods include a wide range of popular items such as processed meats, fizzy sodas, sweetened cereals, ice creams, mass-produced biscuits, and other ready-to-eat or heat convenience foods. These products are commonly characterized by their inclusion of more than five ingredients, many of which are not typically used in traditional home kitchens—such as chemical additives, artificial colorings, flavor enhancers, preservatives, and texturizers.
Experts are still divided over the exact reason why UPFs seem to correlate with negative health outcomes. There is ongoing debate as to whether it is the level of processing itself that contributes to poor health or whether the issue lies in the high fat, sugar, and salt content of these foods. Some researchers argue that the true culprit could simply be the nutrient-poor profile of many UPFs, rather than their industrial nature.
The study, published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine, is based on a comprehensive review of previous data evaluating dietary habits and mortality rates. Researchers collected and analyzed dietary surveys and death statistics from eight nations: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, the UK, and the US. The goal was to model the potential health impact linked to high consumption of ultra-processed foods.
Importantly, the study does not offer conclusive evidence that UPFs directly cause early death. Since individuals who consume large amounts of UPFs often also exhibit other lifestyle factors—such as lower levels of physical activity, less access to healthcare, or lower socioeconomic status—it remains difficult to isolate UPFs as the sole factor in health deterioration.
Despite this, the researchers were able to estimate significant associations. In countries such as the UK and the US, where UPFs account for more than 50% of daily calorie intake, the study suggests that approximately 14% of premature deaths could potentially be attributed to these highly processed foods. In contrast, in nations like Colombia and Brazil—where UPFs make up less than 20% of average daily caloric consumption—the estimated contribution to early death is notably lower, at around 4%.
Lead author Dr. Eduardo Nilson, based in Brazil, stated that ultra-processed food harms health “not only due to the alterations caused by industrial processing, but also because of the frequent use of synthetic ingredients such as artificial sweeteners, emulsifiers, colorings, flavorings, and other chemical additives.” According to their models, the United States saw roughly 124,000 early deaths in 2018 associated with UPF consumption, while the United Kingdom recorded close to 18,000.
These findings have prompted renewed calls for governments to revise their public health guidelines and dietary recommendations. Researchers behind the study argue that stronger language urging people to reduce their intake of ultra-processed food is urgently needed.
However, the UK’s Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition has publicly stated that there is insufficient evidence to conclude a direct relationship between food processing methods and adverse health effects. This cautious stance reflects the complexity of the issue and the many unknown variables involved.
The term “ultra-processed food” is still the subject of some debate. While no universal definition exists, the NOVA classification system is widely adopted in academic research. It defines UPFs as industrial formulations with little or no intact whole foods, typically including a variety of artificial additives. Common examples include:
- Packaged cakes, pastries, and cookies
- Crisps and savory snacks
- Industrially produced breads
- Processed meats such as sausages, hot dogs, and burgers
- Instant soups, noodles, and ready-to-eat meals
- Chicken nuggets and fish fingers
- Flavored yogurts and fruit-based drinks
- Margarine and other spreads
- Infant formula and follow-on milks
According to this framework, ultra-processed foods have become an inescapable component of daily consumption, particularly in high-income countries. But their long-term health implications are still being investigated.
The study’s conclusions are based on mathematical modeling, which requires a number of assumptions and projections. Prof. Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, urged caution when interpreting the findings. “It remains unclear whether any consumption of ultra-processed food is harmful, or whether specific components within these foods are to blame,” he stated. “As such, it is impossible for one study alone to confirm that differences in mortality are a direct result of differences in UPF consumption levels.”
Dr. Nerys Astbury, a University of Oxford expert in nutrition and obesity, agreed with this assessment, noting that the strongest health risks are still associated with diets high in calories, sugar, and fat—attributes common in many UPFs. She emphasized that most existing research fails to definitively separate the effects of processing from the effects of excess energy and poor nutrition. “It’s plausible that the harm isn’t the processing itself, but rather the fact that many of these foods are nutrient-poor and energy-dense,” she added.
Similarly, Dr. Stephen Burgess of the University of Cambridge highlighted that lifestyle factors like physical fitness may play a more significant role in individual health outcomes than diet alone. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that a growing body of international research suggests UPFs may not be mere bystanders in the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. “The concern is building that ultra-processed foods could actively contribute to poor health outcomes,” he said.
The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), a UK-based industry group representing manufacturers, has pushed back against the term “ultra-processed food,” stating that it unfairly maligns many products that can play a role in a balanced diet. “The phrase ‘ultra-processed’ is overly broad and vague, and includes everyday items like yogurt, pasta sauces, and packaged bread,” the FDF argued. It added that all food additives used by manufacturers in the UK are regulated and approved by the Food Standards Agency to ensure they are safe for human consumption.
As scientific debate continues and public interest grows, the global conversation around ultra-processed food is likely to intensify. For now, experts agree that moderation, nutritional quality, and overall lifestyle choices remain critical to improving public health outcomes.
