Findings highlight widening gap between goals and projections
A new international report reveals that global coal, oil, and natural gas production planned for 2030 far exceeds levels aligned with the Paris Agreement. Signed in 2015, the accord set the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius to prevent the most severe consequences of climate change.
The 2025 Production Gap Report, led by the Stockholm Environment Institute, shows that nations are on track to produce more than twice the amount of fossil fuels compatible with climate targets.
Major producers driving global increase
The analysis indicates that the world’s 20 largest emitters, including China, the United States, and India, intend to expand fossil fuel production compared to previous assessments. China, responsible for more than half of global coal output, plays a central role in this upward trend.
The study highlights that the gap between commitments and production has grown: projected 2030 levels now exceed the 1.5°C pathway by over 120%, compared with 110% in 2023.
Global pledges face implementation challenges
During the latest United Nations climate conference, governments recognized the need to accelerate the clean energy transition, triple renewable capacity, double energy efficiency, reduce deforestation, and cut transport-related emissions. However, progress remains insufficient to meet these targets.
While national policies vary, most countries continue to uphold their commitments under the Paris Agreement. According to the report’s authors, achieving these goals will now require a steeper and faster decline in fossil fuel production and use in the coming years.
