In the wake of the June conflict between Iran and Israel, speculation has intensified over the future of Iran’s 86‑year‑old Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. As concerns grow following reports of Israeli threats to his safety, analysts say Iran’s leadership transition has entered a critical phase.
Revisiting Iran’s Sole Leadership Change
The Islamic Republic has faced just one senior succession, in 1989, when Khamenei succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Vali Nasr, of Johns Hopkins University, comments, “everything in Iran in the past four or five years has really been about succession.” Khamenei has periodically submitted names to the powerful, yet largely ceremonial, Assembly of Experts. Nasr suggests the recent crisis has accelerated efforts “to make a transfer of power much more smooth and quick.”
Rivals Among Heirs Apparent
The most discussed potential successors include hardliners like Mojtaba Khamenei and Hassan Khomeini, as well as pragmatic reformists, such as former presidents Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami. Many insider sources assert the next leader will likely be a cleric, preserving the Islamic Republic’s ideological foundation.
Power Shift: Guards vs. Clerics
Ali Vaez, Head of Iran’s project at the International Crisis Group, proposes a major power shift: “It is quite possible that Ayatollah Khamenei is the last supreme leader of Iran.” According to Vaez, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—weakened yet still influential—may challenge clerical authority, viewing the clerical elite more as a liability than an asset.
Internal Factionalism Intensifies
Afshan Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School warns that any successor lacking independent political strength could become a conduit for competing elite factions: clerics, business magnates, and IRGC figures. Nasr argues the IRGC already exerts broad control: “They control media… vast areas of the economy… decision‑making circles.”
Foreign Policy: Hawks Versus Doves
A growing group within Iran’s elite is reportedly pushing for a more pragmatic foreign policy. Nasr notes, “They’re saying we should end the war with the West and go down the path of de‑escalation.” This suggests a future leader could steer Iranian diplomacy towards de-escalation and normalization.
The Death Factor: Natural or Violent
Nasr warns the nature of Khamenei’s departure could shape succession dynamics:
- Natural death: might allow appointment of a moderate cleric
- Assassination or crisis: would likely cement hardliners’ grip to signal continuity amid chaos
Possible Successor Profiles
- Mojtaba Khamenei or Hassan Khomeini — power continuity via lineage
- Rouhani or Khatami — seen as more moderate choices
- IRGC-aligned figures — rising in influence if non-clerical power gains hold
As Iran navigates a fraught succession under geopolitical pressure, the nature of the next supreme leader—his background, ideology, and legitimacy—will shape not only Iran’s domestic architecture but also its diplomatic posture.
